Gold vs Bitcoin
Good day, crypto fam!
First of all, Happy New Year!
It’s been a while since I made a newsletter, I’ve been busy BTS with some decent gem hunting for the upcoming bull market.
All the work is done now and there is a very exciting time waiting for us this year.
We have the ETF approval upcoming + the bitcoin halving and of course, we have the 10k callers for BTC, I’m here to discuss everything and make everything clear
Technical analysis Bitcoin
Bitcoin is remaining within the same range for now. Historically the 61.8% fib level is an important resistance that can be found between 48 and 50k.
As for now, we are ranging between 41k and 45k waiting to make a clear direction.
Bullish above 45k with a target at 48-50k where we could expect historically strong resistance and this could also be the resistance where BTC starts to head down again to make the last “major dump” before halving.
Of course, if we close below 40k we can assume bears are in control and we’ll head toward 37k.
Bitcoin to 10K?
There are still many gurus out there on social media screaming that bitcoin will go to 10k before ETF approval or before a bull market starts.. the time is nearing for them as we are 97 days away from the bitcoin halving which means we’ll be entering a bullish cycle very soon.
Are there any technical reasons to back up that Bitcoin will go to 10K? No.
Are there any fundamental reasons to back up that Bitcoin will go to 10K? No.
The truth is, cycles are made for a reason… In this late stage of the cycle, we have NEVER formed a bottom so late so it would highly surprise me if now bitcoin does form a new low because “this time is different because of the ETF approval”.
You hear this every time a new bullish cycle is about to start… I’ve heard this at every beginning of the bull market some investors come out with some crazy theories and say “ Because of this times are different and price will act different” yet that NEVER happened so far and never will as historical patterns are formed and followed for a reason.
Bear market bottom 2015:
Bear market bottom 2018
Bear market bottom 2022
GOLD vs BITCOIN
Let’s talk about something very interesting that will make you understand how this Bitcoin ETF approval actually could go.
We have gold which we all know as a store of value and now we have bitcoin called “ digital gold “. Both are very different yet very similar.
Let’s talk about gold first as gold already had an ETF approval 20 years ago.
Just like Bitcoin, gold faced delays as well with its ETF approval but over time they did decide to approve the GOLD ETF and that happened on the 28th of March 2003. Interesting to take into consideration is the month of March which is 3 months after the new year started.
Another interesting thing to take into mind is that before the ETF approval gold came right out of a bear market where it formed a bottom, after the bottom gold saw a decent pre-bull market and went up by 50% before finally facing resistance in February and crashing down with 17%. During this crash, the ETF approval got passed in March, and after that gold had a massive 500% bull run
GOLD CHART:
Now you may ask yourself, why is this so interesting? Because Bitcoin and this ETF approval are almost an exact mimic of how gold behaved in the past. Let me explain to you why.
Many are thinking that the first Bitcoin ETF approval will come in January but that doesn’t make any sense because if you approve one you have to approve all of them and that would be too early within the cycle (in my opinion) rather instead I think they will delay all the decisions towards March 2024 which is 3 months into the new year… Why March 2024? because the people behind the approval always love to go the FINAL DEADLINE for these types of things as it causes shake-ups in the market
schedule ⬇️
Also coincidentally Bitcoin just came out of a bear market… it formed a bottom and saw upside momentum ever since with bare to no real resistance in place, the same happened with gold.
Now we entered a new year and many are expecting (including me) a dump to be incoming in the market which could again align with the perspective I gave above with the 61.8% fib level being a historically strong resistance after a bear market and we also have the halving of 2024 incoming in… APRIL… wouldn’t it be funny that all comes at once? 🤔
We are 2 months away from March and 3 months away from April… meaning that the timing for Bitcoin to start heading down is nearing as well ( February??) so it could get interesting very soon, definitely if BTC does decide to go to its historical resistance of 48-50k which actually could also happen in February.. just like with gold… would that be another coincidence?
ETF approval in March 2024
Bitcoin halving in April 2024
All summed up it is a perfect recipe for a strong bull market.
Bitcoin is seen as the “ digital gold “ so it could be that my theory that I just explained does fold out in a good way.
Historical charts of bitcoin with the first touch of the 61.8% fib level on higher timeframes.
1:
2:
3:
Does the ETF approval matter?
In my opinion not, but for some for some sort of reason it does change their perspective on the charts and makes them see bullish events as a bearish event, which indeed could be in the short term but again… does that 15-20% make the difference in the long term for you? Cause for me it doesn’t.
Bitcoin does not need the ETF approval to make a new all-time high or to have another bull market rather instead this ETF approval will make access to adoption a lot easier for a lot of people who are unaware right now.
Many good things are incoming for this industry and I’m very excited to see it all unfold right in front of me as I expected.